S&P Global Mobility released its study on the impact the tariff war will have on autos. The chance of bad-to-dire consequences is a 70% probability.

S&P Global put the probability of the auto industry experiencing an extended disruption period at 50%. That includes a host of unsavory possibilities, including production interruptions for vehicle models, rising prices, and delays in new product development, with impact for several years to come.

Beyond new vehicle costs, the impact will ripple through the broader automotive market. The cost of vehicle repairs will rise as the price of imported parts climbs. In turn, we’ll see much higher vehicle insurance premiums, given that repair costs are a major factor in determining rates.

Automotive intelligence firm S&P Global Mobility is predicting that if President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs lead to a trade war, there's a 50 percent chance that the auto industry could enter a long period of disruption.